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The biggest US banks show the worst is yet to come for the economy

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America’s largest banks are steeled for a wave of loan defaults and missed payments that still haven’t arrived. Thanks to an initially immense amount of support from Washington, that pain appears to have been pushed out to next year.

Bank of America, the country’s second-biggest lender by assets, gives us a window into how households are holding up. Its customers have spent $2.3 trillion this year, which is more than they dished out during that span in 2019, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said in a call with analysts this week. Credit card and mortgage delinquencies were lower in the third quarter than they were a year earlier—which is not what you would expect to see in a country in which around 800,000 or more people make new filings for unemployment support each week.

Executives at Bank of America, like their peers at JPMorgan and Citigroup, credit government stimulus, like the $2 trillion CARES Act, for preventing a meltdown. It remains to be seen whether government support has merely delayed heavy losses, or created a cushion bridge for consumers and business until they to get to the other side of the economic malaise.

“The purpose of it was to change the outcome, not just delay the losses,” JPMorgan CFO Jennifer Piepszak told analysts this week. “The question is whether the bridge will be long enough and strong enough to bridge people back to employment, and bridge small businesses back to normalcy.”

The US banking giants accounted for heavy losses to come during the first and second quarters, but added much less to those provisions in the most recent period. Bank of America’s CEO said the lender’s build up of reserves is already behind it and factored into its financials.

As Bank of America’s Moynihan pointed out, the expectation for losses keeps getting pushed out, quarter after quarter. “It’s now in the second half of next year,” he said. JPMorgan’s CFO echoed that idea, as did Citigroup’s: “We do expect losses to begin to rise next year and likely peak towards the end of 2021 as government stimulus and other programs roll off and unemployment remains elevated,” Citigroup CFO Mark Mason said.

This week’s bank results also highlighted how unevenly the coronavirus pandemic has rippled through the US economy. At Bank of America, customer spending on retail and services has bounced back and increased, as of the third quarter. But other sectors remain deeply distressed, with travel and entertainment spending still 37% lower than a year ago. Expenditures at restaurants have come off their April lows, but they’re still down 18% from 2019.

Credit: Bank of America

For now, the big US banks appear heavily buttressed against the potential turmoil. Many lenders have cut dividend payments and stock buybacks, fortifying their balance sheets, and deposits have shot up. “Capital is building up  and deposits flows have been very good, for the obvious reasons,” said David Ellison, a portfolio manager at Hennessy Funds. “When the world is coming to an end everybody puts their money in the bank.”

Will Congress pass a new stimulus bill?…

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